Khan vs Diaz: Analysis

The next opponent for Amir Khan has been announced.

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Let me start out by saying that Julio Diaz is a clear improvement on the limited Carlos Molina who Khan comprehensively defeated in his return to action after his brutal loss to Danny Garcia. Yet he, on paper, shouldn’t be a threat to Khan in his British return.

So who is Julio Diaz?

The headlines are he’s a 33 year old Mexican boxer based in California with a record of 40 wins, seven losses and one draw, 29 of those wins coming by stoppage. The highlight of his career so far was probably a period between 2004 and 2007 when he held the IBF version of the World Lightweight title two times. On paper that’s a solid enough record… but it’s worth looking behind it.

Diaz has a tendency to lose to the best fighters he faces. In his first major bout he lost to a faded Angel Manfredy. He lost his first IBF World Title in his first defence when knocked out by Jose Luis Castillo. His second reign came to an end when he was broken down by Juan Diaz and many thought his career was essentially over when he was sensationally knocked out by the hard punching Kendal Holt at 140lbs.

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That’s not to say there’s no depth to Diaz’s record. He’s scored wins over some decent opposition in his time; Ernesto Zepeda, Courtney Burton, Jesus Chavez, Ricky Quiles, David Torres and Herman Ngoudjo were all decent boxers on fairly good runs of form when Diaz beat them. That’s not to say there weren’t loses at that level as well… gatekeeper Victor Manuel Cayo beat him at 140lbs, Rolando Reyes beat him at the end of his 135lbs run and he was taken out in a round back in 2002 by Juan Valenzuela.

So overall what do we have?

The general picture is of a good boxer at 135lbs who was able to beat solid opposition but never quite managed to win “the big one”. At 33 and having been in a number of wars he’s probably past his best and as a guy who spent much of his career at 135lbs he’s likely to be a little on the small side.

A ray of hope for Diaz comes in his recent form. Many thought his career was over with the above mentioned loss to Holt but he’s rebuilt at 147lbs and actually found some good form, picking up two stoppage wins over fairly decent opponents and most impressively taking Shawn Porter… a very well regarded US prospect… to a draw in what was meant to be Porter’s coming out party.

What of Diaz the boxer? One thing to note is that he can certainly punch a bit. 29 stoppages in 40 wins isn’t shabby and it’s certainly of importance that he carried his power up to 147lbs. However he’s a little chinny himself, having been stopped in five of his seven losses. He’s a well rounded boxer who can fight well on the inside or outside. He’s not particularly technical and has a leaky defence but makes up for this with a busy style based around eye-catching combinations. When he puts it together offensively he looks like a world beater and he keeps himself in good shape, able to keep throwing those combinations for 12 rounds. The problem has always been the defence mentioned above.

So where does that leave him against Khan?

Khan is still in the early stages of his new relationship with Virgil Hunter having left Freddie Roach and as such he’s likely still in the process of adjusting his style. Regardless of the changes Khan remains a boxer with immense physical talents, notably his speed, from which everything else builds. When on the front foot he generally relies on a jab followed by the straight right, leaping in and out using his speed to both open up opportunities and get him out on trouble. On the back foot he looks to counter, making an opponent reach for him before stepping in with single shots.

Khan’s lanky frame, speed and power means he’s found considerable success but there are… or at least have been… weaknesses. The most infamous one is his chin. While it may not be quite as bad as people sometimes describe it there’s no doubt that it’s fairly fragile. What makes this worse is a combination of Khan’s mindset and technical skills. Technically he’s limited… his footwork is average at best, he finds himself off-balance and his defence certainly isn’t impenetrable. Those things combine together to mean that Khan can get hit… and when he does get hit he’s often off balance.

However mindset may be the key issue. When hurt Khan doesn’t clinch or cover up or try to spoil or even particularly try to survive. What he tries to do is bite down on his gumshield, plant his feet and try and punch his way out of trouble. While this makes bouts exciting it’s not been good for Khan who never really gets a chance to recover and ends up eating shots. Nothing symbolises this more than the Garcia bout. Khan eats a monster counter shot but manages to make it back to his feet and survive the round. In the next round instead of getting his feet back under him he comes out swinging and keeps eating shots. Every time he eats a shot he backs away just a little but then tries to punch his way out of trouble. The result is he never recovers from that first blow and is eventually stopped. Khan also has difficulties on the inside. During his bout with Peterson Khan struggled whenever the American got near to him and eventually had to resort to pushing him away.

There weren’t many drastic changes for Khan’s first bout under Hunter and in truth Molina wasn’t the sort of opponent that he needed to show improvement against. Khan was a bit more settled then he had been previously and fought with less of an unnecessary bounce in his step but after a single camp together one can’t expect to see many differences in style. This is a better chance to see what the pairing can do.

Khan and Diaz mirror each other to an extent… both offensively dangerous, both defensively suspect and both with chins that can be cracked. That said, I think Khan has a clear edge. His speed means he should be able to hit Diaz without being hit himself and Diaz isn’t a natural counter puncher. If they are drawn into exchanges then Khan’s speed should again tell; Diaz leaves openings while punching.

Khan’s chin means there will always be doubts and Diaz has the power to cause him difficulties. But I think Diaz’s own weaknesses tell. Diaz will try hard and may even cause Khan some difficulties if he can regularly pin him down or get to the inside. I think Khan’s speed tells however.

Khan TKO in eight rounds after an enjoyable bout.

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2 thoughts on “Khan vs Diaz: Analysis

  1. Pingback: Khan vs Diaz: Some out-of-the-ring considerations… | Slip the Jab

  2. Pingback: Golden Boy 140lbs Tournament: Garcia, Judah, Peterson, Matthysse, Khan Part 1: Overview | Slip the Jab

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